Deterring Russia: Elements towards a European Strategy
Mardi 02 juin 2026
Deterring Russia: Elements towards a European Strategy
Mardi 2 juin, 18h-19h30
École Militaire, Amphithéâtre Moore
Co-organisation: NATO Defence College
Deterring Russia is emerging as a cardinal task in European states’ collective and individual defence postures. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow has indeed developed its military might and has gained battlefield experience, while the US commitment to European security appears to be faltering under the current American leadership. To be effective, however, deterrence has to be based on the adversary’s strategic thinking and on the anticipation of its actions and reactions. What are the contours of Russia’s post-Ukraine military strategy? What are the implications for Europe in terms of capability development and strategic signalling? What should be NATO’s role in particular? How to put foresight at the service of deterrence? This roundtable will examine Russia’s current and future military posture with a view to deriving lessons for Europe’s deterrence strategy.
Speakers:
Florence Gaub is Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defence College in Rome. An expert on strategic foresight and geopolitical trends, she recently published NATO 2099: A Science Fiction Anthology (NATO Defence College, 2024). She serves on the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Complex Risks.
Oscar Jonsson is Associate Senior Lecturer at the Swedish Defence University and Senior Non-Resident Associate Fellow at the NATO Defence College. He is the author of The Russian Understanding of War (Georgetown University Press, 2019) and The Russian General Staff (Georgetown University Press, forthcoming October 2026), as well as “A new face of war – Russian military strategy post-Ukraine” (NATO Defence College 2026).
Michael Kofman is Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is an expert on the Russian military, Ukrainian armed forces, and Eurasian security issues. He is a contributing editor at War on the Rocks, where he hosts the Russia Contingency podcast, and recently published ”Ukraine’s War of Endurance” (Foreign Affairs 2026).
Chair:
David Cadier is Senior Research Fellow on European Security at IRSEM and Adjunct Professor at Science Po Paris and the College of Europe.